The global bond sector has enjoyed its highest weekly investor inflow in the past four years, with investors sidestepping equity funds in support of fixed income amidst concerns that the international economy is slowing and central banks will have to lower their interest rates.
Fixed income funds estimated by EPFR, a data supplier, drew $17.5 billion worldwide in the first week of June, the biggest inflow since February 2015. More heavily rated “investment grade” funds sucked in $18.5 billion — the best five-day inflow on record.
“The Fed seems ready to grant Donald Trump his wish and lower interest rates,” said Alexander Krämer, a Commerzbank analyst. “Both the homemade trade dispute the US has with the rest of the world and the decline in inflation over the past few months provide the rationale behind such a move”
“Without a deal, weak global and US growth will likely be persistent, forcing the Fed into a series of cuts,” warned James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse, adding that even a US-Chinese trade deal may not be enough to avert an “insurance cut” by the Fed to support growth. “Rising tariffs and growing uncertainty is a significant shock”
US loan funds bore $1.4 billion in outflows in the week that ended on June 5, the biggest one-week exit from the floating-rate industry since January 2.
Investors can now imagine at least two Fed rate cuts, which are likely to be witnessed before the year ending, as per the interest rate future prices, and many believe that even three or four are quite possible. The first step could be in July, but the Fed funds futures sector specifies a decent possibility that it might come as soon as later this month.